| via alles-schlumpf on Flickr |
Friday, March 02, 2012
The Internal Corporate Incubator
Friday, January 27, 2012
The Enterprise Ambiguity Manager
| Via Paul (dex) on Flickr |
This concept of understanding information flow is important for managing risk at a firm. Deloitte Consulting highlights this concept in their "Shift Index" white paper, "[b]ecause of the rapid change, higher unpredictability and volatility...knowledge flows are a particular key to improving performance'.[1]
| Via Rebecca-Lee on Flickr |
Flow is essential to managing risk because it prevents strategies based only on current state factors that are going to rapidly change. "The next decade or two will be defined more by fluidity than by any new, settled paradigm; if there is a pattern to all this, it is that there is no pattern. The most valuable insight is that we are, in a critical sense, in a time of chaos."[4]
This new type of manager must not only understand the traditional components of risk, they must be able to thrive in ambiguity, they must be what I call an Enterprise Ambiguity Manager. The EAM must know how to use information flow to do traditional stress testing of component parts such as the supply chain and the customer portfolio, but also be able to build a model that reveals characteristics of a stressed system and then zoom back out to observe the flow again. Surviving the chaos requires plugging into the neurons to collect big data on a massively complex system and then tuning in to the flow in order to ride the waves of change.
[3] http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/01/to-know-but-not-understand-david-weinberger-on-science-and-big-data/250820/#.TyCKnDKxERg.twitter
[4] http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/162/generation-flux-future-of-business
Saturday, January 21, 2012
Global Trend: Mobile Banking
Mobile banking is really the intersection between 3 main themes happening throughout the world:
- Successful expansion of micro- financial services products to the world’s poorest communities has proven that the ~ 3 billion “unbanked” global population can be reached in a profitable manner. Further, research such as Portfolios to the Poor and others have shown a sophisticated knowledge of personal finance even at the bottom of economic pyramid and a willingness to go beyond simple savings and debt finance. "The biggest market potential, believes Swiss Re, is in the life and health insurance sectors with the commercially viable market numbering some 2.6bn people with daily incomes of between $1.25 and $4. Swiss Re estimates the premium income potential of this income segment at $33bn".[3]
- The rapid expansion of mobile technology in only the last decade has brought 2.5 billion people online enabling a customer base of 1.1 billion mobile bankers by 2015 [4] . Solar powered cell towers, wifi, and other technologies enable even remote places to be connected.
- The search for new markets by all major firms from P&G to Citigroup and the promise of double digit growth in emerging markets has resulted in new and more remote distribution channels, new understandings of rural needs, and large amounts of academic data to guide investment decisions.
There is no doubt that this trend will continue to propagate at incredible rates. The opportunity for customer convenience combined with cost reduction for firms is impossible to pass up. Here is a brief timeline of the action so far:
A BRIEF TIMELINE:
- Pre 1999 SMS based banking in US included ability to check savings account balance and recent transaction history.
- 1999 – WAP internet available for mobile phones, European banks launch internet banking.
- 2003 – Vodafone uses grant from the UK to develop mobile money transfer tech platform M-PESA in Kenya. Launches in 2007 as is the gold standard for proving it can be profitable.
- 2009 – Zain launches mobile money transfer in Kenya.
- 2009 – Telenor Pakistan launched mobile banking solution.
- 2009 – Syngenta Foundation uses M-PESA to launch mobile property (farm crop) insurance in Kenya.
- 2010 – Dutch-Bangla launches first mobile banking in Bangladesh.
- 3/2011 – MTN and Hollard Insurance launch mobile life insurance in Ghana.
- 7/2011 – ZONG launches mobile accidental insurance in Pakistan.
- 9/2011 – British American Insurance (4th largest insurer in Kenya) launches low-cost accident insurance in Kenya with Safaricom (Vodafone) and Equity Bank (JV now called M-KESHO) using M-PESA.
[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobile_banking
[3] http://www.vrl-financial-news.com/wealth-management/life-insurance-intl/issues/lii-2011/lii-257/micro-insurers-turn-to-technol.aspx
[4] http://www.prweb.com/releases/2010/02/prweb3553494.htm
[5] http://techland.time.com/2011/12/28/looking-forward-to-2012-the-continued-demise-of-cash/
[6] http://technorati.com/business/article/google-fighting-for-our-wallets/
Saturday, January 07, 2012
5 Things a Company Can Do To Stay Ahead
- Strive for higher quality products. Quality has always been a competitive advantage but in today's market it is possible to imitate everything from smart phones to cars within a matter months. Patents and complex manufacturing materials do not provide the shelter they once used to and therefore quality is truly elevated to being the defining feature of a market leader.
- Part of providing higher quality products is to offer a portfolio of services or products within a single product. An even better way to think of this is as a platform with add-on capabilities. Just like a computer operating system is a platform for building software applications on, a business can be a platform for building on top of. IBM was able to successfully implement this strategy by divesting its single-serving commodity products and then launch their Smarter Planet technology. They have created a platform for large entities such as cities and corporations to monitor resource usage with no end to the number of nodes that can be built on top of it. And, by purchasing PWC's consulting practice they are also able to manage implementation, maintenance, and innovation.
- Offering many services within a single product allows a business to enhance customer experience through frequent touch points. Today's mobile apps and games are fantastic examples of platforms that offer new maps, new abilities and features, and other add-on capabilities for the user. However, this also has the effect of providing an interaction between the vendor and the customer. Interactions are important for many reasons such as making the company more relatable and "human" to customers, remaining at the front of a customer's mind through weekly or daily interactions instead of annually (or some larger interval) during product launches, and listening to what customers are saying[1] which in turn leads to faster product innovation, quicker responses to crises, repeat business, and a more comprehensive profile of individual customers. Establishing a direct connection to customer is essential.
- Maintaining this level of customer service while growing an ecosystem of products is impossible if internal policies are too tight or if internal information flow is hindered. A business that successfully implements the above strategy is one that isn't afraid to experiment. Google is often recognized as a leader in product experimentation with their large R&D budget, 20% time for employees, and investments in everything from solar energy to self driving cars. Yet they stand out as a company that isn't afraid to launch an idea, sometimes only half baked, see where it goes and quickly kill or reinforce it. The important part of getting this right is creating spaces for creative workers to experiment, having leaders that know how to provide just enough structure to channel that creativity, and then a system for harvesting and promoting the best ideas. As they say in the start-up world, fail fast and fail forward.
- Finally, re-think the pricing models of the past. Today's online businesses have proven that freemium models can and do work, Amazon is proving that selling the hardware below production costs will payoff when customer's purchase everything that feeds into it, and newspapers are slowly working through the mechanics of digital distribution. There is little that still works in this world "because it's always been done that way".
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Business Use Cases for Gamification
Now, take game principles and apply them to real-world scenarios and you arrive at a much more interesting world to live in. Imagine a world in which people look forward to everyday activities (like work) as much as they look forward to playing games. And if you're unsure what this actually translates to in terms of time, according to Jane McGonigal, gamers have spent more than 5.93 million years playing World of Warcraft and have created the largest wiki in the world on the game -- all voluntarily. Most adult games spend an average of 22 hours per week playing games, basically a part-time job.[3] This is an amazing amount of productivity. I am passionate about McGonigal's dream of directing these efforts towards solving poverty and inequality, but in the meantime, consider some of the other ways that gamification is being used now:
- Advertising: One of the most intricate and fascinating examples of gamification is Warner Bros. campaign for the movie Batman - The Dark Knight. In the months leading up to its release an entire alternate reality game (ARG)[4] was created for fans that would play on the devilishly mischievous nature of the primary antagonist the Joker. This included a Gotham Times newspaper with clues about the plot of the film, billboards and posters in different cities that tied together to contain clues about the film, and an army of websites including one for those who wanted to gather together to fight crime. The entire campaign pulled in the likes of Hershey, Comcast, Nokia, Verizon, Kmart, MySpace, and other retailers to cross promote the film and brought together a world wide audience. The website MovieMarketingMadness.com does a great job of walking through the various components.[5]
- Solving diseases: The game Foldit is a highly publicized game in which players - usually non scientists - come together to identify the correct structure of specific proteins. This is no easy task and the answer is unknown, but by working together to identify patterns, gamers were able to uncover the correct structure of proteins that are involved in HIV/AIDS. The success of this game has led to a revolution in how scientists work to solve the diseases of our day.[6]
- Crisis response: Brett Horvath outlines an excellent framework for the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative in which the small actions gamers are already doing in video games can be harnessed during crises (such as earthquakes and tsunamis) to organize massive amounts of information so that emergency responders can take action.[7]
- Terrorism: NPR recently did a piece on how "Islamic extremist websites have borrowed from the gamification playbook by incentivizing participation in terrorist activity."[8] As frightening as this is, it adds weight to the argument that there are an unlimited number of scenarios for leveraging this concept.
- Career performance management: It isn't hard to see how Google's new platform Schemer - a social network that allows users to share their personal goals - could be enhanced with a few additional game design features and then be implemented in corporations for employees to develop performance goals. This wouldn't automatically make work more engaging, but with a little creativity and some employee freedom, an additional layer of fun can be added to what is otherwise often a boring and meaningless environment.
- Talent acquisition and product development: The giant cosmetics company L'Oreal currently uses a game called Reveal in which prospective employees compete to launch a new product. The success of the player helps the company understand skill sets from talent across the globe and determine a potential career path. This platform could easily be extended to existing employees to test product launches and marketing campaigns, or even to work together to design completely new products. It's a scenario that engages employees and creates loyalty and camaraderie while also providing a platform for enhanced knowledge sharing within the firm.
- Customer engagement: Loyalty programs have been trying for decades to enhance customer engagement and yet they often result in simply paying the customer (in points) to make specific purchasing decisions. With the money and audience already in place through millions of credit card programs around the world, it wouldn't be hard to tweak these programs to make purchasing decisions more fun. One of the most successful loyalty programs in the world, Nectar, is already experimenting with incentives not just for purchasing, but also for "green" behaviors such as riding a bike to work and bringing re-usable shopping bags to the grocery store instead of using plastic. Imagine this being extended to entire sustainability initiatives across a company or across a nation.
- Health and wellness programs: Currently, many corporate health insurance companies act like loyalty programs and pay employees to make healthy choices such as exercising regularly or quitting smoking. And while people do respond positively to monetary incentives, other virtual currencies such as positive feedback from other users, "like" points (think Facebook and LinkedIn), and Facebook credits can be leveraged as well. The game SuperBetter[9] for example would be an excellent platform for encouraging healthy choices within a broader health and wellness program.
Yet the potential for gamification to completely revolutionize the world in which we live is huge by changing our every behavior. And, hopefully, this goes beyond just influencing consumers, but that the technology actually extends towards making us better people[10]. Whatever the changes, from problems of poverty to worker boredom to gaining a competitive business edge, there are both economic and philosophical reasons to implement these programs.
[8] http://www.onthemedia.org/2011/may/06/the-gamification-of-jihad/transcript/
[9] http://www.onthemedia.org/2011/sep/30/gaming-back-health/
[10] http://www.ted.com/talks/jesse_schell_when_games_invade_real_life.html
Thursday, December 01, 2011
Monetary Policy and Business
It is these types of actions by central banks that can have significant impact upon businesses and in fact have become more common since the start of the global recession in 2008. Think of the Quantitative Easing programs (QE) that the US, the UK, and EU have undergone[2], or the US contention that China keeps its currency artificially low.[3]
All of these programs cause exchange rates, and therefore the price of goods, to fluctuate rapidly and unpredictably causing significant impact to supply chains, payroll checks, loan repayments, capital expenditures, and other aspects of normal operation. "In 2006, a survey ...found that 80% of corporations surveyed acknowledged that their businesses were exposed to significant foreign exchange risk. However, only 42% of these corporations indicated they employ currency hedging techniques to manage risk."[4]
Even worse, the recession provides an incentive for central banks to engage in these programs as a method of making domestic goods cheaper abroad in order to obtain growth, effectively "stealing" growth from other countries as those products become more expensive. Occasionally, this may result in "economic warfare"[5] where countries react to the monetary actions of another. Again, this means increased uncertainty for global firms and academic studies suggest that even in the best of times, currency risk is not compensated with higher returns.[6]
In order to mitigate these currency risks, global firms should:
- Perform a complete supply chain analysis. Firms can use technology and business intelligence to identify key components of their portfolio of raw materials.
- Look for over-exposure of raw materials from one country or one currency and then analyze the risk of that currency due to domestic policy as well as economic stability. Also included in that risk are ripple effects of policy/ economic variables in markets that the supply market is dependent on.
- Identify materials in the supply chain that may be dependent on the value of a currency, like oil, that will require hedging strategies such as futures and options. This may also be a good time to perform a sustainable supply chain analysis in order to identify raw materials that are risk from environmental impact or regulation.
- Finally, if the firm itself is a step in someone else’s supply chain then they need to analyze how currency risk can affect their customer’s desire or ability to continue purchasing.
- Perform a customer segmentation analysis. Again, technology and BI can help a firm segment their customers to identify if large portions are in markets at risk and how it may impact sales.
- Identify overexposure to clients that pay with volatile currencies.
- Just because customers may be using the same currency as the manufacturer, if the manufacturer’s customer’s customers are unable to operate because they are tied up by currency swings, then that will impact that manufacturer as well.
- Identify other parts of the firm that operate abroad or are dependent on foreign exchange. Many firms today have divisions, such as call centers and manufacturing plants, which operate in a different market than HQ. Firms need to analyze the risk to these operations in the case of a significant currency price swing that may affect payroll or capital expenditures.
- Look at the balance sheet to determine specific assets and liabilities. Firms that have borrowed money or lend money (even within their own firm but to divisions in other countries) face challenges with currency swings. Using standard financial services principles, a firm can look for risk to Accounts Receivable or identify liabilities they may need to renegotiate.
- Maintain extra cash on the balance sheet. Successful companies in past recession have kept "3 to 10 times the normal level of cash assets on their balance sheet[7]", but those recessions were neither as deep nor as long, and did not have the increased volatility of system of tit-for-tat by central banks. Maintaining extra cash is a necessity in order to prepare for shocks.
- Hire a risk mitigation specialist. Whether in-house or external, if the firm buys or sells goods in multiple countries, has operations, borrows or lends money, stores money in banks, or invests in multiple countries, then they need a specialist who knows how to use hedging tools such as derivatives.
[5]http://www.amazon.com/Currency-Wars-Making-Global-Portfolio/dp/1591844495/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1322972520&sr=1-1
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
New Client Flow in the Lumana Program
So, as those survey clients began to come to our office and asked about joining our microfinance program, we weren’t sure who to accept and how to group everyone. How did we make sure everyone completed our education classes? How did we build in enough checks and balances that we could remain objective and protect ourselves? Our “do-it-first-codify-it-later” approach worked for our first class of 30 clients. But by the second class, we had well over 300 people showing up and enough teachers to run a class of at least 80. This required a much more sophisticated design for managing the information in an efficient way and getting people through the application process as easily as possible. So, I leaned on my Information Systems 460 class from the UW Foster Business School and created a process flow diagram.
The first thing I mapped was a basic outline of the process a client went through from the time they met with us to the time they completed a loan cycle. I then identified the places that could make a person ineligible for our program (the circles) so we could create ways of helping them fix what they needed to and get back in. I also needed to pinpoint all the decisions (diamonds) along that our Ghanaian Field Officers might encounter so we could provide adequate employee training.
I broke it out into 3 phases, one for the application process, one for the education process, and one for the loan cycle process. This provided a clear idea of how our clients “flowed” through our program, the strengths and weaknesses along the way, and became the foundation for points on our self-designed credit rating system.
Friday, March 19, 2010
Fund Manager of the Decade
In studying for a finance job interview, I was bushing up on fund managers and came across this Morningstar article listing the finalists for their “Manager of the Decade Award”. Interestingly, they point out that “[o]f all domestic-equity funds… barely a third have positive 10-year returns.”. Unfortunately, I won’t be graphing that data, but I did find a table in the article that was in desperate need of graphing.
*Click on a manager’s name and it will highlight the shape on the second graph. Or click on an asset class and it will display the managers. Hover over the shapes to view details.
Thursday, March 18, 2010
RT @nprNews: State Tax Revenue from Taxing Cocaine and Marijuana
I recently saw this tweet on NPR news about a study published by a Harvard economist. However, the NPR article only contained a table of data, so I thought it would be fun to map it out. Just as the article says, almost every state would profit more from taxing cocaine that from marijuana. However, what might have been difficult to see in the original table is that most states are clustered together with roughly the same revenue amounts, but the real winners would be FL, TX, CA, and NY. Please note the author mentions the number of users would likely rise if the drugs were legalized, but estimates don't account for this.
*If you click on a state on the map, it will highlight the shape on the the other graphs. If you click and drag your mouse on the scatter plot it will highlight the states.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Real Time Economics
The Wall Street Journal has come out with a Real Time Economics page with “real time” graph of the US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. It’s nothing special in terms of data visualization, but it is interactive and I trust them to update it regularly.
Friday, February 26, 2010
Social Media Stats
This is a great video that lays out just what kind of an ROI people are beginning to see. Can't wait to see how this technology evolves in 2010. http://ow.ly/1b3c5

